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Watts Up With That The world's most viewed site on global warming and climate change . The world's most viewed site on global warming and climate change . Posted on . by . Steve McIntyre writes at Climate Audit: Bishop Hill links to a presentation by Myles Allen to a 2011 conference on Climategate which like every other such handwringing introspection by climate communicators notably failed to invite any of the major CRU critics people who might actually have given them some insight into Climategate. In his presentation to climate communicators Allen gave his own version of Hide the Decline. Allen showed the graphic below sneering that the entire effect of Climategate was 0.02 deg C in the 1870s. . Posted in . Tagged . Posted on . by . Excerpts from . by Clive Best Abstract: Positive linear climate feedback for combined water effects is shown to be incompatible with the Faint Sun Paradox. In particular feedback values of ~2.0 W/m2K-1 favored by current GCM models lead to non physical results at solar radiation levels present one billion years ago. A simple model is described whereby Earth like planets with large liquid water surfaces can self-regulate temperature for small changes in incident solar radiation. The model assumes that reflective cloud cover increases while normalized greenhouse effects decrease as the sun brightens. Net water feedback of the model is strongly negative. Direct evidence for negative water feedback is found in CRUTEM4 station data by comparing temperature anomalies for arid regions deserts and polar regions with those for humid regions mainly saturated tropics. All 5600 weather stations were classified according to the Kppen-Geiger climatology 9. Two separate temperature anomaly series from 1900 to 2011 were calculated for each region. A clear difference in temperature response is observed. Assuming the difference is due to atmospheric water content a water feedback value of -1.5 +/- 0.8 W/m2K-1 can be derived. I. INTRODUCTION The Faint Sun Paradox was first proposed by Carl Sagan 1 who pointed out that the geological evidence that liquid oceans existed on Earth 4 billion years ago appears incompatible with a solar output 30 dimmer than today. . Posted in . Tagged . Posted on . by . Al Gore is his usual incompetent persona is bloviating weapons grade nonsense again. A few prior examples: On TV . in AIT snows of Mt. Kilimanjaro will gone due to global warming . and Gore’s 24 hours of Climate Reality “high school science” that is so solid . Gore’s got a new schtick he is now complaining about “dirty energy” making “dirty weather”. From the Daily Caller there’s this: Former Vice President Al Gore showed that he isnt giving up on sounding the alarm on global warming and its catastrophic consequences in an appearance on Current TVs The War Room with Jennifer Granholm on Thursday. Gore who owns CurrentTV and appeared alongside former Obama administration green jobs czar Van Jones explained that dirty energy and dirty money are thwarting a green economy. And that according to the former vice president is behind dirty weather due to extreme climate events. . Posted in . Tagged . Posted on . by . BULLETINSUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL ADVISORY NUMBER 1NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL0220121100 PM EDT FRI MAY 25 2012 …SUBTROPICAL STORM FORMS IN THE SOUTHEWESTERN ATLANTIC……TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE SOUTHEASTERNU.S. COAST… SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT…0300 UTC…INFORMATION———————————————–LOCATION…32.5N 74.8WABOUT 305 MI…490 KM E OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINAMAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…45 MPH…75 KM/HPRESENT MOVEMENT…N OR 10 DEGREES AT 9 MPH…15 KM/HMINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1001 MB…29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS. Posted in . Tagged . Posted on . by . Quark Soup writes: . Last week Suzanne Goldenberg of The Guardian reported: “A review has cleared the scientist Peter Gleick of forging any documents in his expose of the rightwing Heartland Institute’s strategy and finances the Guardian has learned.” . But the Pacific Institute is telling me that no such clearing has occurred: . Posted in . Tagged . Posted on . by . Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach In my previous post “. “I discussed a paper called “Recent Northern Hemisphere tropical expansion primarily driven by black carbon and tropospheric ozone” by Robert Allen et al hereinafter A2012. They use several metrics to measure the width of the tropicsthe location of the jet stream JET the mean meridional circulation MMC the minimum precipitation PMIN the cloud cover minimum CMIN and the precipitation minus evaporation P-E balance. Since writing that post I’ve looked at what the Argo dataset says about the P-E balance which is the precipitation minus the evaporation. Figure 1 shows the global Argo results regarding the salt concentration salinity in the surface of the ocean which is a proxy for precipitation minus evaporation. . Figure 1. Global average salinity as revealed by the Argo floats in practical salinity units PSU. We can use the salinity of the ocean in the tropical and temperate regions as a very good proxy for the balance of precipitation and evaporation. In the deep meteorological tropics just north of the equator is the Intertropical Convergence Zone or the ITCZ. In the ITCZ the precipitation predominates. As a result in that area there is more fresh-water rain than evaporation and that makes the ocean less salty blue. . Posted in . Tagged . Posted on . by . Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach After years of getting up at 4 AM to go commercial fishing these days I generally have as little to do with dawn as possible. But last Sunday I found myself in the Palm Springs airport at 5 AM boarding a plane to Chicago to go speak at the ICCC7. The Conference is put on by the Heartland Institute which has had real trouble getting any publicity this year. So I figured I’d go give them a hand … My connecting flight out of Denver was delayed so I didn’t get to Chicago until the afternoon and I figured I’d just roll into town. As the world always turns out things were not quite that simple because the Conference was being held at the Chicago Hilton Hotel which was also hosting the NATO Conference and the inevitable associated protests. Since the main staging ground for the protestors was in the park across the street from the Hilton the police had barricades up all around there many of the roads were closed entirely and my bus couldn’t even drive up to the front door. It dropped us two blocks away and I had to schlepp my luggage to the hotel. Nor did the fun stop there. Because there were a variety of heads of state staying in the Hilton there were Secret Service people from a dozen nations all over the hotel. It was like being in some alternate reality where every second person is a policeman quite strange. . But that was just the surrounding storm. The Conference was another matter I enjoyed it greatly. Judith Curry has a very . up at her blog attacking both Heartland and the Conference I don’t know why. Let me start by saying that I have many disagreements with the Heartland folks and that I went and spoke anyway. Let me see if I can explain why. . Posted in . Tagged . Posted on . by . From Lucia’s blog by Josh of course click for story. Joe Bast is responding to: . Posted on . by Judith Curry ==================================== Received via email: Dr. Curry Thanks for reproducing in your recent post my account of the lefts attacks on our scientists and donors. Its a story that isnt getting nearly enough attention in the blogosphere. Im disappointed though that you also reproduced at length and even endorsed the lies and distortions written about us by Suzanne Goldenberg. A simple call or email to me or Jim Lakely would have given us a chance to correct her many misstatements. I wont ask for a correction or apology but please understand that . Posted in . Tagged . Posted on . by . Seal of the C.I.A. – Central Intelligence Agency of the United States Government Photo credit: Wikipedia Despite what NCDCs Thomas Peterson Wikiwrangler William Connolley and John Fleck would like you to believe as a myth . there was in fact serious consideration of the global cooling issue in the 1970s thanks to this 1974 document from the CIA. Anthony The CIA Report and the Warning from Wisconsin Guest post by David Archibald In August 1974 the Office of Research and Development of the Central Intelligence Agency produced a report entitled A Study of Climatological Research as it Pertains to Intelligence Problems available online at: . Some interesting bits of the report follow: The western worlds leading climatologists have confirmed recent reports of a detrimental global climate change. The stability of most nations is based upon a dependable source of food but this stability will not be possible under the new climatic era. A forecast by the University of Wisconsin projects that the earths climate is returning to that of the neo-boreal era 1600- 1850 an era of drought famine and political unrest in the western world. . Posted in . Tagged . Posted on . by . As many WUWT readers know my dog Kenji Watts is an actual member of the Union of Concerned Scientists. . This of course is proof that all you need is a valid credit card to join this front group as they describe others in this science free money quest. Below is the email Kenji received today. Anthony . Posted in . Tagged . Posted on . by . This post will be a sticky top post for a day or two new stories will appear below this one. . in the National Review reposted here with permission Climategate the 2009 exposure of misconduct at . of East Anglia was a terrible blow to the reputation of climatology and indeed to that of British and American science. Although that story hasnt been in the news in recent months new evidence of similar scientific wrongdoing continues to emerge with a new scandal hitting the climate blogosphere just a few days ago. And central to the newest story is one of the Climategate scientists: Keith Briffa an expert in reconstructing historical temperature records from tree rings. More particularly the recent scandal involves a tree-ring record Briffa prepared for a remote area of northern Russia called Yamal. . Posted in . Tagged . Posted on . by . The venerable 12AU6 vacuum tube still in use by audiophiles today – I used many like this in my youth From AAAS news of a super tiny vacuum-tube transistor hybrid that can operate up to .46 TERAHertz thats 460000 megahertz or 460 gigahertz: Return of the Vacuum Tube by Jon Cartwright Peer inside an antique radio and you’ll find what look like small light bulbs. They’re actually vacuum tubesthe predecessors of the silicon transistor. Vacuum tubes went the way of the dinosaurs in the 1960s but researchers have now brought them back to life creating a nano-sized version that’s faster and hardier than the transistor. It’s even able to survive the harsh radiation of outer space. . Posted in . Tagged . Posted on . by . Deal with climate reality as itunfolds . May 23 2012 . Dr. Bob Carter By Dr. Bob Carter Over the last 18 months policymakers in Canada the U.S. and Japan have quietly abandoned the illusory goal of preventing global warming by reducing carbon dioxide emissions. Instead an alternative view has emerged regarding the most cost-effective way in which to deal with the undoubted hazards of climate change. This view points toward setting a policy of preparation for and adaptation to climatic events and change as they occur which is distinctly different from the former emphasis given by most Western parliaments to the mitigation of global warming by curbing carbon dioxide emissions. . Posted in . Tagged . Posted on . by . Contact: Chris Vaccaro FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE 301-713-0622 May 24 2012 . Hurricane Andrew on August 23 at 1231 UTC. This image was produced from data from NOAA-12 provided by NOAA. Photo credit: Wikipedia NOAA predicts a near-normal 2012 Atlantic hurricane season Anniversary of Hurricane Andrew underscores necessity to prepare every year Conditions in the atmosphere and the ocean favor a near-normal hurricane season in the Atlantic Basin this season NOAA announced today from Miami at its Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory and home to the Hurricane Research Division. For the entire six-month season which begins June 1 NOAAs Climate Prediction Center says theres a 70 percent chance of nine to 15 named storms with top winds of 39 mph or higher of which four to eight will strengthen to a hurricane with top winds of 74 mph or higher and of those one to three will become major hurricanes with top winds of 111 mph or higher ranking Category 3 4 or 5. Based on the period 1981-2010 an average season produces 12 named storms with six hurricanes including three major hurricanes. . Posted in . Tagged . Posted on . by . Short notice – this is on NOW. Worth watching even if only for how they justify saying ‘black carbon and other short-lived greenhouse gases.’. I didn’t know black carbon was a gas. Here’s the release: On Thursday May 24 at 12 NOON EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME / 9:00 AM PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME a group of internationally acclaimed scientists will present to the California Air Resources Board findings on black carbon and other short-lived greenhouse gases. The presentation will be webcast. For more information see the email below and visit . . MEDIA ADVISORY: Leading scientists to present findings on black carbon and climate change to California Air Resources Board . Posted in . Tagged . Posted on . by . From Dr. Benny Peiser at . As a result of Germany’s green energy transition electricity prices are exploding. Consumers and businesses are paying the price while Germany faces gradual de-industrialisation. Economists estimate that the cost of the green energy transition will total 170 billion Euros by 2020. This is more than double of what Germany would have to write off if Greece were to withdraw from the monetary union. “The de-industrialization has already begun” the EU Energy Commissioner Guenther Oettinger has warned. –. Posted in . Tagged . Posted on . by . Leaf lamina. The leaf architecture probably arose multiple times in the plant lineage Photo credit: Wikipedia From the . Hacking code of leaf vein architecture solves mysteries allows predictions of past climate UCLA life scientists have discovered new laws that determine the construction of leaf vein systems as leaves grow and evolve. These easy-to-apply mathematical rules can now be used to better predict the climates of the past using the fossil record. The research published May 15 in the journal Nature Communications has a range of fundamental implications for global ecology and allows researchers to estimate original leaf sizes from just a fragment of a leaf. This will improve scientists’ prediction and interpretation of climate in the deep past from leaf fossils. . Posted in . Tagged . Posted on . by . Global Warming Policy Foundation Photo credit: Wikipedia New Energy Bill Is A Disaster Press Release from . London 23 May: With the publication of its draft Energy Bill the government has announced its intention to reverse the course of energy deregulation. The Global Warming Policy Foundation warns that any attempt to turn back the clock to the dark period of centralised energy planning will not only damage Britains economy but will almost certainly end in failure just like other attempts to impose a centralised system of energy controls have failed in the past. Nigel Lawson the GWPF’s Chairman who as Energy Secretary was the architect of Britain’s energy market deregulation in the 1980s warned: . Posted in . Tagged . Posted on . by . The Arctic sea ice extent forecasting contest is on again. As before I’ll allow readers to submit their best estimates in a poll and I’ll submit those results as we’ve done in the past two years. Last year the forecast submitted by reader poll was a bit high probably due to optimism that abounds here as opposed to the gloomy outlooks submitted by others. . click to enlarge This year due to the near normal excursions it might be tempting to again submit a significantly higher value than 5.0 million square kilometers it might also be tempting to . . I don’t recommend either forecast. Here you can read the post season summary from 2011.. Posted in . Tagged . Posted on . by . Many thanks for the invitation and for giving me the opportunity to address this distinguished audience. I am not for the first time in Chicago. It is also not for the first time that I am attending a conference organized by the Heartland Institute. But it is for the first time I am with Heartland here in Chicago. Some of you know that I came to Chicago for the NATO summit. Yesterday and today I was supposed to speak about what to do in Afghanistan how to keep NATO going in an era of overall indebtedness and budgetary cuts and about NATO-Russia relations. I am glad to tell you that we did not discuss the global warming. It seems that NATO does not consider global warming to be a security threat. But my main preoccupation in the last days was NATO and I am afraid I am not sufficiently prepared to make a serious contribution to your conference. Let me make at least a few remarks I consider relevant now. The word now is important. On Friday evening I attended a music festival in Prague and during the break I mentioned to a group of people that I go to Chicago among other things to speak at this conference. Their reaction was: Global warming Isnt it already over Does anybody care about it. That is how they see it. Maybe it is a European perspective.. Posted in . Tagged . Posted on . by . Brad Johnson’s formerly of Climate Progress now of “Forecast the Facts” “Rally Against Corporate Climate Deniers” was a great bit of entertainment for many at the Heartland conference yesterday. I was in session and couldn’t attend but I heard about the guy wearing a rubber boot on his head with the bullhorn . who ran for president and campaigned in 2012 on a platform of . awareness and time travel research and he promises a free pony for every American.. I heard about this guy from Lucia who was there and promises has an update on . . I hear she has some video of the cops intervening. It may be the “boot” was parodying the fact that Brad Johnson seems to have “gotten the boot” from the Center for American Progress/Think Progress as he no longer seems to be associated or publishing his rants there. Maybe it was the repeated . that did it. This “protest” he staged is hilarious on so many levels for the sheer FAIL on display. He couldn’t even pull off a decent protest. Kid’s today are nothing like their radical parents of the 60′s. Pictures follow.. Posted in . Tagged . Posted on . by . From the . some buggy science. Next thing you know PETA will be campaigning to have us shut off street lighting to “save the insects”. I’m surprised it has taken them this long to figure out that bugs like street lights. Perhaps like moths drawn to a flame these scientists were drawn to a grant to study this. The results are another “could may might” effect on the entire food chain. Something MUST be done. /sarc . Long exposures of insects under a street light. – Click for video Light pollution transforming insect communities Street lighting is transforming communities of insects and other invertebrates according to research by the University of Exeter. Published today 23 May 2012 in the journal Biology Letters the study shows for the first time that the balance of different species living together is being radically altered as a result of light pollution in our towns and cities. Believed to be increasing by six per cent a year globally artificial lighting is already known to affect individual organisms but this is the first time that its impact on whole communities has been investigated.. Posted in . Tagged . Posted on . by . Brought to You by SEPP . The Science and Environmental Policy Project ################################################### Quote of the Week: Scientifically it is sheer absurdity to think we can get a nice climate by turning a CO2 adjustment knob. Klaus-Eckar Puls German physicist and meteorologist who supported the IPCC until he conducted his own investigation. H/t Timothy Wise link under Challenging the Orthodoxy. ################################################### Number of the Week: 68.4 Billion US ################################################### THIS WEEK: By Ken Haapala Executive Vice President Science and Environmental Policy Project SEPP Heartland Conference: The Heartland Institutes Seventh International Conference on Climate Change ICCC-7 is taking place in Chicago Illinois from Monday May 21 to Wednesday May 23 2012 at the Hilton Chicago Hotel 720 South Michigan Avenue. The event will follow the NATO Summit taking place in Chicago on May 1921. The Theme is Real Science Real Choices. Open to the public registration is required. . Once Venerable Institutions: We continue to see publications by once venerable institutions overtaken by alarmist claims. According to the E&E reporter the Scripps Institution of Oceanography produced a study claiming that warming will wipe out one-third of the California snowpack Sierra Mountains by 2050 and two-thirds by the end of the century. TWTW was unable to locate the actual study on the Scripps web site. The claim was immediately repeated by officials at the California Air Resources Board CARB. CARB has been one of the most active regulatory authorities in the nation often using the scantiest scientific justification for its regulations. The implication is that the loss of the snowpack will have a disastrous effect on agriculture and urban areas that depend on the moisture from the Sierra Mountains. . Posted in . Posted on . by . Guest post by Alec Rawls NERC the North American Electric Reliability Corporation must have thought it was taking a step up when a 2005 law made the non-profit group an official advisor to Congress but that law also brought them under the oversight of FERC the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission which just spent months of rummaging through every desk looking for rule violations they could use to embroil NERC in legal difficulties. . Posted in . Tagged . Posted on . by . Guest post by Bob Tisdale For years Tamino aka Grant Foster has complained about the placement of the GISS model projection at the start of the ARGO-era OHC data. Well Gavin just discovered an error in his presentation of the GISS model simulations. And he’s corrected them. Funny how if we only looked at the ARGO era the new GISS model-data comparisons would now resemble mine. So I acknowledged and thanked Gavin–and then showed his graphs. NOWWill Tamino Correct his Posts Tamino has complained about my model-data presentation of ARGO-era Global Ocean Heat Content in numerous posts. See . and . and my replies . and . . My replies were also cross posted at WattsUpWithThat . and . . Tamino didnt like the point where I showed the model projections intersecting with the Ocean Heat Content data. Refer to Figure 1. . Figure 1 A few months ago Gavin Schmidt of GISS also suggested that my presentations were wrong in his . . There he wrote my boldface: As an aside there are a . floating around using only the post 2003 data to compare to the models. These are often baselined in such a way as to exaggerate the model data discrepancy basically by picking a near-maximum and then drawing the linear trend in the models from that peak. This falls into the common trap of assuming that short term trends are predictive of long-term trends they just arent There is a nice explanation of the error . . That language by the way still exists in his updated post even though he has corrected his data. Gavin missed the point that I wasnt interested in presenting long-term trends in that graph. That aside today Gavin Schmidt . to his presentations of Ocean Heat Content in his model-data comparisons. Gavin writes: . Posted in . Tagged . Search for: "...the world's most viewed climate website" - Fred Pearce . "...invaluable" - Steven F. Hayward . Blog Stats 116009975 views Countdown to Arctic Zero Ice Day - . Arctic Sea Ice Nearly Disappears September 22nd 2012 3 months to go. . The Gore-a-thon in comics . Top Posts . Follow Blog via Email Enter your email address to follow this blog and receive notifications of new posts by email. Join 8042 other followers Recent Posts . Recent Comments Stephen Wilde on . Urederra on . Bart on . tonyb on . Bart on . tonyb on . Dave on . 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